Dina B. Kunasheva, Vladimir N. Sidorenko, Yulia V.Bayeva
Abstract
This article contains the econometric analysis of usability of the general macroeconomic balance based on the IS-LM model in open economy. The authors also examine the correspondence of the model conclusions concerning macroeconomic policy in the export oriented countries (Russia and Kazakhstan). The quarterly date over the twenty years for Russia and ten years for Kazakhstan are used for this survey.
The research is based on the estimations of the behavioral equations such as consumption, investment, net export, monetary demand and balance payment line.
The authors identify the peculiarities of interconnection between crucial macroeconomic variables: household expenditures and net disposable income, gross accumulation and interest rate, net export and real exchange rate, money demand and interest rate and income.
Primary goods of high export share restricts on the application of the classical monetary tools. Therefore, the influence on consumer and investment behavior via interest rate is poorly performing due to underdevelopment of credit channel of monetary policy transmission.
Econometric calculations prove the low capital mobility in Russia and Kazakhstan. The connection between net financial account and interest rate changes is not detected. As a result of the analysis, it is identified that the direct and portfolio investments dynamics is determined by the leading industries’ profitability and exchange rates.
These identified features of interconnection impose significant (almost overwhelming) restrictions on applying the IS-LM model in open economy to implement the macroeconomic regulation and forecasting in export oriented countries.
Keywords: IS-LM, IS-LM-BP extended model, export-oriented economies, model of general economic equilibrium (balance).
Cite
Dina B. Kunasheva, Vladimir N. Sidorenko, Yulia V.Bayeva Assessment of the general macroeconomic balance model of the exportoriented economies (on the basis of Kazakhstani and Russia economies) // Economics: strategy and practice. — 2019 — № 1 (14) — p. 27-40.
